The 2015 Paris Agreement laid plans to restrict global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. But we’re moving too slowly; scientists think warming in the 2–4 degree range is now more probable.

The US dollar continued to fall from its peak at the end of March. This falling dollar is part of the rising inflation trend that is unlikely to end any time soon. Minutes published by the US Federal Reserve stated that “an unspecified number of committee members” had mooted discussing scaling back the central bank’s monthly bond purchases in a future meeting

Fiscal conditions are incredibly accommodative: interest rates are lying low; credit is freely available; and GDP is as if Covid never happened. The time to taper is nigh.

Markets were relatively quiet this week, as largely positive economic news flow did little to move asset prices in one direction or the other. Equities advanced slightly on a New York Times report claiming that US President Biden will seek $6 trillion in US spending in the next fiscal year; the White House will unveil its full proposal later today.

Investment professionals have for many years employed the concept of an ‘investment clock’ to determine which asset classes perform best in the various stages of the global economic cycle and interest rate changes. While the hand is currently pointing to economic and equity market recovery, is the clock ticking for investors? Is the mounting concern over inflationary pressures and possible rate hikes justified?

Data released yesterday showed US consumer prices rising in May at the fastest pace seen since 2009,echoing much of the sentiment which appears to have been underlying market expectations over the last few weeks. Whilst the Federal Reserve insists this inflation is transitory to justify its inaction, the definition of “transitory” is open to interpretation. Driven by a vastly expanded money supply and a number of longer-term trends, it is perhaps more likely that inflation will remain high for some time.