This was a quiet week with US markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. However, news broke overnight about a new Covid-19 variant. This led to a sell-off in markets as investors consider the potential new travel restrictions and lockdowns. This is a reminder that life will take time to get back to normal and indeed that normal may have evolved.

We’ve reached the end of what has been an incredibly quick business cycle. Are there only negative surprises to come?
Growth has recovered, and it’s strong. Inflation is at a 20-year high. We are now at the peak of the business cycle. Is it all downhill from here?

This weeks US inflation report once more beat expectations as reported inflation in the US continued to rise, now sitting at 5.4% year over year. Recent weeks have seen the debate over transitory vs persistent inflation being resolved, with major company’s such as Bank of America’s CEO stating “Inflation is clearly not temporary”.

At first glance, rising inflation may seem like a relatively simple problem to fix. Central banks, such as the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve, would raise interest rates to curb demand for goods and services. This would, other things being equal, lead to a lower rate of inflation.

The US dollar continued to fall from its peak at the end of March. This falling dollar is part of the rising inflation trend that is unlikely to end any time soon. Minutes published by the US Federal Reserve stated that “an unspecified number of committee members” had mooted discussing scaling back the central bank’s monthly bond purchases in a future meeting

Fiscal conditions are incredibly accommodative: interest rates are lying low; credit is freely available; and GDP is as if Covid never happened. The time to taper is nigh.