We’ve reached the end of what has been an incredibly quick business cycle. Are there only negative surprises to come?
Growth has recovered, and it’s strong. Inflation is at a 20-year high. We are now at the peak of the business cycle. Is it all downhill from here?

This weeks US inflation report once more beat expectations as reported inflation in the US continued to rise, now sitting at 5.4% year over year. Recent weeks have seen the debate over transitory vs persistent inflation being resolved, with major company’s such as Bank of America’s CEO stating “Inflation is clearly not temporary”.

At first glance, rising inflation may seem like a relatively simple problem to fix. Central banks, such as the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve, would raise interest rates to curb demand for goods and services. This would, other things being equal, lead to a lower rate of inflation.

This was a quiet week with US markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. However, news broke overnight about a new Covid-19 variant. This led to a sell-off in markets as investors consider the potential new travel restrictions and lockdowns. This is a reminder that life will take time to get back to normal and indeed that normal may have evolved.

Investment professionals have for many years employed the concept of an ‘investment clock’ to determine which asset classes perform best in the various stages of the global economic cycle and interest rate changes. While the hand is currently pointing to economic and equity market recovery, is the clock ticking for investors? Is the mounting concern over inflationary pressures and possible rate hikes justified?

Data released yesterday showed US consumer prices rising in May at the fastest pace seen since 2009,echoing much of the sentiment which appears to have been underlying market expectations over the last few weeks. Whilst the Federal Reserve insists this inflation is transitory to justify its inaction, the definition of “transitory” is open to interpretation. Driven by a vastly expanded money supply and a number of longer-term trends, it is perhaps more likely that inflation will remain high for some time.