This was a quiet week with US markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. However, news broke overnight about a new Covid-19 variant. This led to a sell-off in markets as investors consider the potential new travel restrictions and lockdowns. This is a reminder that life will take time to get back to normal and indeed that normal may have evolved.

We’ve reached the end of what has been an incredibly quick business cycle. Are there only negative surprises to come?
Growth has recovered, and it’s strong. Inflation is at a 20-year high. We are now at the peak of the business cycle. Is it all downhill from here?

This weeks US inflation report once more beat expectations as reported inflation in the US continued to rise, now sitting at 5.4% year over year. Recent weeks have seen the debate over transitory vs persistent inflation being resolved, with major company’s such as Bank of America’s CEO stating “Inflation is clearly not temporary”.

At first glance, rising inflation may seem like a relatively simple problem to fix. Central banks, such as the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve, would raise interest rates to curb demand for goods and services. This would, other things being equal, lead to a lower rate of inflation.

Equity markets have been soothed by recent central bankers’ dovish speeches and have largely accepted, for now, that the surging consumer price inflation is transitory.

It has been a very strong start to the year and investors should be pleased with the performance they have enjoyed but equally should not get carried away and must remember to think with a long term mindset as a setback in the second half of the year is at least possible.