News

Equity prices have recovered from the lows in March – a remarkable comeback amid so much uncertainty. But high valuations mean less opportunity for future returns and more risk for investors, so where do we go from here?

This week has heralded a significant change in tone for markets. After months of outperformance by tech stocks such as Amazon, Apple and Microsoft, the
tides changed this week and many investors found themselves wrong-footed by the switch in sentiment. With Pfizer’s vaccine news providing a glimmer of
hope for a return to normality, cyclical stocks in industries such as travel, banking and hospitality staged a significant rally.

The stratification between the real economy and the stock market continued this week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index of thirty large US companies, reached a record high of 30,000 points. Donald Trump was quick to laud the stock market’s performance as being the result of his economic genius, a welcome break from claiming election fraud, no doubt.

The decision to reinstate a two-week quarantine on travellers returning to the UK from Spain was made this week as the infection rate in the region is running at three times the rate in the UK. As next week sees the start of discounted eating out throughout the country, it appears that holiday goers to the Canary Islands can also snap up the bargain of four weeks of holiday for the price of two! Or at least we think that’s how it works

The irony will not be lost on many. If China’s recent forecasts are anything to go by, it looks set to become the only economy in the world to see positive economic growth in 2020. But how did the Chinese recover so quickly from the Covid-19 crisis, and what does it mean for investors?

The world is a rather unpredictable place at the moment. While equity markets are up by a whopping 40% since the March 2020 lows, the outlook for the global economy remains uncertain. All major economies except China are expected to contract by more than 5% this year.

When equity markets rallied 8 percent on the announcement of BioNtech and Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine, it showed just how eager investors were for some light at the end of the tunnel. But as global lockdowns persist, it’s clear we’re not out of the woods yet, and markets pulled back again to reflect that.

For the first time in history, the price of gold topped $2,000 an ounce as investors continue to look to the safe
haven metal amid the pandemic. The gold rush continues as the US prints money at an aggressive rate,
instigating fears amongst investors that the reserve currency status of the dollar might be under threat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that a locally developed vaccine for Covid-19 has been given regulatory approval after less than two months of testing on humans. Experts were quick to raise concerns about the speed of Russia’s work, and a growing list of countries have expressed scepticism. Personally, we won’t be lining up for a jab just yet.

The S&P 500 (an index of the 500 largest US stocks) closed at an all-time record high on Tuesday, fully recovering from the losses it experienced in Spring. A day later, Apple became the first US company to reach a $2 trillion valuation, making its market value larger than the GDP of Canada. The tech company will need to deliver on some very demanding expectations in order to justify that valuation.